when is it safe to gamble

This is an attempt to find out if there is any way to make a profit betting on the result of horse racing in the UK. To proceed with this search we will make two assumptions.

1. Certainty does not exist.
2. Therefore failure or success are not a certainty.

However there must be some way to make failure or success almost certain or close to it.

This is what we will attempt but only in the case of success, the more difficult of these 2 options.

If for example we examine a race at various stages. An hour before the race we have only a minimal amount of information helping us to find the winner. Five minutes before the race we have the odds set by the course bookmakers, we know the going conditions, the condition of the horses if we are watching on TV and these improve our chances of predicting the result.

During the race we can see as the event develops the horses with most chance of winning and those with little chance. As the races finishes we have a winner, but are we now certain? From assumption 1 we must say no. For a number of reasons the winner could be disqualified. But you say the bookmakers pay first past the post. But there are exceptions- the winner could have taken the wrong course and bookmakers will not pay on this one.

So the best time to bet is after the race is finished, this increase your chances but no bookmaker would agree to this. So the best time to bet now becomes as near to the start of the race as is possible. This is when the optimum information is available to make a judgement.

The difficulty arises when you have to decide which information to use to make your choice more accurate. There are all the obvious things like horses previous form, jockey, race conditions, draw and fitness. But there are also the hidden factors such as trainers assessment of the chances and the methods trainers use to optimise the best price for the owners. These hidden factors are the most important elements if you want to improve the chances of success.

This then is the key - careful study of the methods and operation of the trainers. Successful methods are repeated by trainers and some trainers are better than others.

How we look at the big picture to arrive at a better selection is best explained by giving examples and following through over a period of time the process that takes place when making a final selection. This is what I am attempting to do over the coming weeks to see how close to certainty we can get. We should make a profit if this happens. STARTING ON DECEMBER 31 2007.